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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the prize. In practice, it sparks an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

But the current field is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. During an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in such a wild and thrilling year, he's facing multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still