A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
